How a simple technology can help stop COVID-19…

Warning:  This is a quick rant combined with a lesson on troubleshooting.

No, this post is not about some quack fix like drinking Clorox or Lysol — the simple technology is MASKS! But in order to work, EVERYONE must use them. The generic masks are not meant to protect YOU — they are meant to protect YOUR NEIGHBOR.

A recent model predicted that if 80% wore masks that were 60% effective, the COVID Ro parameter would drop below 1, which means the spread is no longer exponentially increasing, but actually exponentially decreasing!

Or as we say in the engineering world, the response is now over-damped. The model further predicts that with a 14 day incubation period, within 28 days new cases would be WAY down.

Models are nice, but what about the real world? Well, we have solid data there. Both Hong Kong and Taiwan are religious about masks. They acted quickly, and have almost 100% mask compliance. As a result, Hong Kong (population 7.5 million) has had 4 deaths, and Taiwan (population 23.8 million) has had 6. And businesses and schools are open.

At these rates the US would have between 100 and 200 deaths, not closing in on 100,000!

Of course, this is not new technology. In the 1918 pandemic (the one that killed my grandmother) masks were mandatory in many cities. Those that enforced mask wearing had much lower death rates. While they did not have the benefits of modern science back then, they did have the benefits of common sense. Something that seems be badly lacking today.

Why the resistance to masks, anyway? Like so much in our society today, it has been politicized. Polls show the “Blues” are much more likely to wear masks than the “Reds.” The difference being, the Blues are concerned about their neighbors, while too many Reds are concerned only about themselves. (If I stepped on toes, get over it & start wearing a mask.)

A quick question for those who want to “assert their constitutional rights.” I would ask “So show me where it says in the constitution that you have a right to infect others.” Self-centered, indeed.

Now, some consulting engineering thoughts — specifically on troubleshooting. For the last 30+ years, my late business partner and I worked to “identify, fix, and prevent” Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) problems in electronic systems. Much of our time was spent troubleshooting while trying to better understand the problems at hand.

Like small town doctors who identified illnesses, fixed broken arms, and prevented disease through shots and vaccines. It was gratifying work, and surprisingly lucrative.

As a first step in identifying (diagnosing) a problem, we used a simple model of “Source – Path -Victim.”  All three elements are needed for an interference problem, but only one needs to be eliminated or controlled.  So which one is the best?

The source, of course. One does that through suppression (for COVID, coughing in your elbow or straying at home when sick,) or containment (such as a mask.)  In the EMI world, the containment is often a simple metal shield, which when properly applied is often cheap and very effective.

The containment need not be perfect — even reducing the unwanted EMI emissions (spread) by a factor of 2 (aka 6 dB for you geeks) is sometimes enough. But with just a little care, achieving 1000x (60 dB) to 1,000,000 (120 dB) reductions are economically doable. When everyone wears masks, the COVID source reduction is believed to be at least 100x (40 dB).

For you non-geeks, the deciBels (dB) are exponential, just like the unchecked spread of the COVID. Scary, huh?

If controlling the problem at the source is not possible, then we move on attacking the “path.” For COVID, this is either through the air, or through contact with infected surfaces. Solutions include (once again) masks and sanitation/hand-washing.

The last method is protecting the “victim.” Because the potential victims can well outnumber the sources, this can get complex and expensive — think ventilators and ICUs. Thus, drastic measures like shutting down businesses and stay at home orders.

We often needed all three for solving EMI problems —  but the source suppression was and still is far and away the most effective when it can be applied. Works for COVID too.

That concludes today’s rant/consulting engineering lecture.  Now — START WEARING A MASK — to PROTECT THOSE AROUND YOU — and to HELL with self-centered politics!

Stay healthy everyone!

Uncle Daryl

P.S. Enough with the rants for a while.  Next up will be a couple of posts where I share some ideas with those not yet consultants, but harboring the “itch.”  We will start with the mailbag. Stay tuned…

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